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2014

Feb 2014 - Misleading GDP?

GDP Numbers Misleading?

The equities markets took a material tumble in early February 2014, citing signs of China slowing down, with its official PMI figure down by 0.5 from 51.0 to 50.5 when it was released on 1 Feb (still mirroring the earlier HSBC estimates that are 1.0 lower, and which fell from 50.0 to 49.5)

Jun 2014 - Market Bottomed?

Has the Resource Market Bottomed Yet ?

The question as to whether the resource market has bottomed yet (or not) has occupied most of the conferences that I have attended so far this year (2014). At all of those conferences (RIU Freo in February, RIU Sydney in May and Symposium Broken Hill in May), the "mood" has been upbeat.

Jul 2014 - Gold Road Patience

Patience has reaped major rewards for Gold Road starting with Gruyere

In the past month (since ~ May 28) there has been a significant rebound in some of the gold stocks to 1 July such as Silver Lake (SLR.ax) up 67% from 33c to 55c and Gold Road (GOR.ax) doubling from 15c to trade at 30c.

Aug 2014 - Viable PGE Orebody

Has Sirius discovered Australia's first viable PGE orebody?

Following up a known historical intersection by Anaconda in the 1970s of ~23m @ 0.56%Ni (incl 2.1m @ 1.27%Ni & 0.13%Cu), Sirius "hit the jackpot" with their first drillhole at their Taipan prospect on the Polar Bear peninsular of Lake Cowan. That drillhole (SPBD0046) had an intersection from 104.4m of 4.1m @ 3.8%Ni, 2.45%Cu & 0.08%Co and 0.89g/tPt + 1.60g/tPd (incl from 106m of 2.15m @ 5.84%Ni, 3.73%Cu, 0.12%Co & 1.10g/tPt + 1.65g/tPd).

Aug 2014 - Australia's New Age

Australia's New Golden Age of Discovery

In his presentation at Diggers 2014, Evolution's Jake Klein showed a figure of gold discoveries over the period from 1990 to 2013, under the caption "Gold discoveries increasingly rare". The figure showed that ~>40mozpa was being discovered from 2001 to 2009, and then only ~15moz in 2010 and 2011, and since then almost nothing.

Sep 2014 - Struggle for Control

The Struggle between East and West for Control of the Gold Price

After Diggers, the gold price fell in ~6 weeks by over US$100/oz from ~$1320/oz to ~$1210/oz by 22 September 2014, and fortunately the A$ fell too, currently at ~US$0.89, which has cushioned some of the blow for the Australian gold producers.

Nov 2014 - China Taking Control

China appears to have taken control of the commodity price markets

..through actions or words, that has mostly resulted in lower commodity prices with the two most obvious examples being gold and iron ore.

Dec 2014 - Waiting Leisurely

"Wait leisurely for an exhausted enemy"

I first heard this "article of war" in a clca presentation by Leonie Mckeon on doing business in China, at the Symposium Conference in Broken Hill in May 2012, (contained in an earlier issue of Paydirt) and did not really appreciate its significance until now.

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