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Tagged with: PayDirt

Nov 2001 - Pasminco (PAS)

“It’s time to leave the Forex Gambling Game Alone”

The eventual suspension of Pasminco (PAS) on 19 September 2001, and blow-out in liabilities to A$3.4bn as some of the forex was closed out by the banks on 26 September has to be the final warning for resource companies to leave the forex or currency speculation “game” alone. All too often we have seen resource companies appear to think that trading currency is the same as trading commodities. It isn’t, it’s vastly different and generally with no observed correlation whatsoever !

Dec 2001 - Where’s Gold Bar?

“Where’s the Gold Bar ?” (…or silver or platinum bar, copper or nickel cathode etc)

There must be many companies who have heard this question asked of them, and it simply comes down to the stockmarket wanting the share price of the exploration stock to appreciate, and one of the best ways is for a company to produce its first gold bar. (The market ultimately tires of the drilling results, and eventually views them as the company trying to spruik the share price of the stock even if the drillholes are genuine).

Feb 2002 - Anglogold Newmont

What does “fair and reasonable” actually mean ?

The latest corporate battle between Anglogold and Newmont each making “fair and reasonable” yet increasingly higher offers for Normandy has called into question the whole comment called a “fair and reasonable offer being made to shareholders and consequently that is why they should accept now! “. Only one year ago (17 Jan 2000), no one was interested in Normandy at 93c, it was even still languishing at 106c in September 2001, and yet it has been in a corporate bidding battle that has resulted in NDY attaining a share price of 199c (16 Jan 2002).

Mar 2002 - Hill 50 Limited

When to keep silent

Many years ago, we can recall one of a teacher’s apparently favourite comments in school reports (they apparently cannot make such negative comments anymore) that, “Smith must learn when to speak and when to keep silent”.

Apr 2002 - Mercury Asset Mgmt

It appears that Mercury was right after all

Julian Baring’s Mercury Asset Management (swallowed by Merrill’s) were the chief proponent of trying to stop gold companies from hedging or forward selling their gold production on the basis that such activities dampened or held back the gold price. We can recall on more than one occasion seeing Mercury and trying to defend the actions of Australian gold producers.

May 2002 - Healthy IPO

Achieving A Healthy Exploration IPO (or at least trying to)

This article is drawn from a presentation that Keith Goode of State One Eagle Research made at AJM’s “Exploration Hotspots’ Conference” on 2 May 2002 in Sydney being “A broker’s view on bringing companies to market based on a perspective of recent exploration company floats”, and was designed to try and offer useful, practical advice.

Jun 2002 - Lasseter’s Reef

Has Lasseter’s Reef been found….by Newmont ?

In a recent Exploration Conference in May in Sydney, Bruce Kay of Newmont (previously Normandy) made two references to Lasseter in his presentation on the Tanami as the best block of ground in the world. The first reference was to the cave which Lasseter inhabited and may have added to the confusion since the second expedition may have gone in the wrong direction, while the second reference stated :

Jul 2002 - American Model

Following the North American Model

It is a foregone conclusion that Newmont is likely to dump or sell the non-gold asset baggage either individually or as a package that it acquired along with Normandy such as Gossan Hill, the Australian Magnesium project in QLD, that cobalt operation in Africa’s Uganda etc, simply because they are non-gold. While it is deemed OK for an Australian gold company to hold non-gold assets, it is not for a North American company.

Aug 2002 - Platinum Production

Platinum production from Australia appears to gradually becoming a reality

And the first platinum producer is……….well, maybe, Platinum Australia.

Sep 2002 - Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe – Perceptions, Expectations and Reality

I recently visited Zimplats’ Ngezi operation and Aquarius’ new Mimosa acquisition in Zimbabwe in late July 2002 and found a totally different situation to that widely perceived from reading media coverage.

Oct 2002 - Reduced Liquidity

The Benefits of Reduced Liquidity

In the fifth extension to its bid for AurionGold, Placer Dome has again trotted out the remark under the heading “Risk of Lower Liquidity…There is a significant risk that the liquidity of AurionGold will fall further if Placer Dome's shareholding increases and if the Offer closes, causing further downward pressure on the share price”. This remark is cited so many times along the lines that a company is expected to experience reduced liquidity due to a takeover or a major parent holding, that in the shareholder’s interest the major will take it over and you the shareholder can invest in something else.

Nov 2002 - Finding the Key

Finding the key – it is often simply in the detail

There are many occasions in which interpretation is required to understand or identify geological formations, structural formations, or even profitability and we have noticed an increasing use of observing, recording or re-interpreting the detail to successfully solve such interpretations or “find the key”.

Dec 2002 - Gold Price Forecast

Forecasting the Gold Price

The general reaction to anyone commenting that they intend to forecast the gold price, is that it cannot be done, but for mining companies assessing the viability of a gold project, something has to be done. In the late 1970’s I once worked for a group within a South African mining house (gold mines in South Africa can take up to 12 years from discovery to production), whose task was to forecast the gold price.

Jan 2003 - Gold Price Pt 2

The black art (part 2) of short-term gold price trading

Long-term forecasting of the gold price is fine for modeling purposes, but what do you use in day-to-day trading for gold or gold shares.

Feb 2003 - Gold Volatility

Gold returns to volatility

In our opinion the gold price has reverted to what it was like pre-producer hedging, which was not just 5 or 6 years’ ago, but actually more than 15 years’ ago. The GFMS Gold Surveys record the net new forwards as shown in Table 1.