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Aug 2009 - DnD - NGF, SLR

Spec Buy NGF ; Buy SLR

  • There were a number of available mine site visits before, during and after this years’ Diggers (which was apparently the highest attended so far). Many people remarked that they were surprised by the number of local & large international fund managers at this years’ Diggers, possibly because the performance by the major gold stocks (apart from Anglogold) has been so poor. The mood was certainly more upbeat, possibly due to the higher share and commodity prices compared to last years’ approaching cliff edge.
  • We were part of groups that visited Norton Goldfields’ Paddington before the conference, Silver Lake’s Daisy Milano during the conference (during most of Tuesday – the 2nd day) and Catalpa’s Edna May afterwards. Catalpa is our next report and is hence not included in this review. You do wonder though whether the group members on the visits do realise what they are seeing on a visit, especially in the case of Silver Lake’s further new additional mineralisation underground at Daisy Milano.
  • We did not attend all the sessions, and there were many rumours and comments, and some of the perceptions have already affected share prices as in the case of Magma Metals (MMB) and Troy (TRY). The following is based on general comments that we encountered and perceptions that we made :
  • Who appears to be doing well : Silver Lake (SLR) stands out, followed by Avoca (AVO). Most of the nickel plays seemed upbeat as in Panoramic (PAN), Mincor (MCR) restarting Miitel and Western Areas (WSA), with Independence (IGO)’s lower guidance of 8kt to 8,4ktNi for 09/10 possibly recovering back towards 9ktNi as Moran was currently expected to be developed from JQ2010, and of course IGO has its 30% of Tropicana.
  • Pan Aust (PNA) referred to a possible new drill-ready discovery called Ban Phonxai about 20km from Phu Kham (PK’s grades were expected to increase due to the infill drilling) and the 33% expansion of PK was to be made at the end of 2010 for commissioning in JH2012, with the feasibility study on its ~A$130m >100kozpaAu/>700kozpaAg Ban Houayxai gold project due in MQ2010, ideally producing in DH2011. Terry at OZ Minerals (OZL) thought that a deficiency gap was approaching in copper and most projects needed US$2.50/lb to justify approval. Terry rated OZL’s current strategy as probably 1 copper, 2 gold, were recommencing underground studies at Prominent Hill, were keen on junior JVs and was undertaking a 100-day strategic review, with more details to come.
  • Written by: Keith Goode
  • Thursday, 20 August 2009

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